Prop 414: A Tax Hike Tucson Can’t Afford

The Arizona Daily Star recently published my assessment on the upcoming Proposition 414. You can read it here

On March 11, Tucson residents will vote on Proposition 414: a half-cent

raise on our city sales tax for the next 10 years. This increase to 9.2% is

estimated to generate an additional $800 million for the city over that

period. A small portion of the new revenue will be divided between much

needed affordable housing, shelter projects, and community resilience

investments. However, the bulk of the funds are earmarked for

surveillance cameras, police and fire upgrades, a new plane, and a new

helicopter. There are no provisions in Prop. 414 that explain how these

capital investments will be funded and maintained after the tax increase

expires.

As a candidate for Tucson City Council Ward 6, I am concerned over the

failure of Proposition 414 to account for the costs to fund and maintain

these expansive projects beyond the ten-year mark. It places much

emphasis on police, fire, and surveillance, and so little on our most dire

needs: low-barrier shelters and low-cost housing for our most vulnerable

residents.

As a native Tucsonan, I understand our history of passing most

propositions that requested a sales tax increase to improve our city. We

want our city to be the best it can be: a top destination to not only visit, but

also to work and raise a family.

However, as an attorney, father, small-business owner, and Ward 6

candidate, I have a responsibility to spend wisely, especially when it is

other people’s money. Proposition 414 is not responsible spending.

Of Proposition 414’s $800 million in estimated revenue, $526 million is

earmarked for surveillance, police and fire upgrades. This includes $16.7

million for a new police plane and helicopter, $44.3 million for a new

police/fire station, $12 million for a new fire station, $8.7 million for new

police vehicles, and $2 million for a new ladder truck. An unknown

portion of $20 million set aside for bus stop upgrades will buy new

surveillance cameras. Increased staffing for the new facilities, training, and

upgrades to existing infrastructure take the total to $526 million. In

contrast, only $274 million of the $800 million total has been allocated to

affordable housing, temporary shelter projects, community resilience, and

related investments.

Allocating more than $16.7 million for surveillance equipment but only

$9.5 million for low-barrier housing is a questionable choice in values. We

are witnessing an influx of unhoused residents, and we are crying out for

the city to act and to treat this as a matter of urgency. Yet, Prop. 414

prioritizes the ability to surveil. A new plane and cameras are not going to

help our homeless population, which today is approximately 50% larger

than it was in 2019. Ask those Tucsonans who work with our most

vulnerable residents; most of them will tell you that we need more lowbarrier

shelter as fast as possible. It is the most effective way to improve

lives. That is what our budget must prioritize.

After the tax increase expires, Tucson’s budget will have to absorb the

ongoing staffing and maintenance costs of these projects. Yet, the future of

that budget is in a state of flux. Recent changes to income taxes at the state

level have reduced the amount of revenue we receive. Our Mayor recently

noted how Trump’s “… order to freeze federal funds … could possibly affect

the city of Tucson to the tune of $300 million.” In addition, there is a real

threat of an economic downturn if our President’s proposed policies are

implemented.

In other words, if Tucson’s 2035 general fund, a fund whose size is difficult

to predict at this stage, can’t absorb these massive new maintenance and

personnel costs, we will be faced with the difficult decision of either raising

our sales tax once again or making significant budget cuts.

Instead of Proposition 414, our city needs a more financially prudent

proposal that makes provisions for the needs of our fire and police

services, but not to the detriment of the most pressing needs of our city:

housing and shelter.

On March 11, we can demand a better, more robust, and balanced proposal

by voting no on Proposition 414.

Leighton Rockafellow Jr. is a Tucson native, father, and personal injury attorney. He is a Democrat

running for Ward 6 City Council.